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Common-Sense Political Forecasting

As global politics continue to gyrate, the pace of change poses ever-greater challenges to accurately predicting the future. Many forecasters have gotten into the habit of declaring—ex post facto—that they got “it” right, when in fact they failed to accurately predict the course of events. Given the multifaceted nature of the world today, predicting the future is quickly becoming a fool’s game and calls for a new paradigm.

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